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HAS AMOC RUN AMOK?
13/11/2025
More worrying news about carbon emissions keeps appearing. This summer, a study[1] revealed that the tipping point, beyond which the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would be inevitable, could be reached and surpassed in a decade or two because of carbon emissions. AMOC is a critical part of our climatic system, bringing tropical water to Europe and the Arctic. This water sinks when it cools in northern climes, creating a return current at depth. The collapse of this system would displace the tropical rainfall that supports many millions of people and would create extremely cold winters as well as summer drought for western Europe, plus it would increase sea levels which are already rising.
The authors of the study conclude, inter alia, that “Of particular concern is our finding that deep convection in many models stops in the next decade or two, and that this is a tipping point which pushes the northern AMOC into a terminal decline from which it will take centuries to recover, if at all,” They also note that the risk of a northern AMOC shutdown is greater than was previously thought. This, coupled with all the other evidence of the adverse effects of climate change, termed rightly by many as “the climate catastrophe”, in my view and that of most scientists, makes it imperative that governments and individuals worldwide cut carbon emissions.
“Drill baby drill” Trump and his followers are certainly not helping or, apparently, even listening[2], despite the UAE 2023 summit in 2023 calling for "transition away from fossil fuels". That was rightly considered to be a historic milestone at the time – but now here we are with the transition to clean energy slowing down whilst simultaneously fossil fuel burning goes on increasing. It has been noted by the mainstream media and many people around the world that a great concern is that Trump’s policies influence other countries (viz. Farage’s views) and support rather than discourage fossil energy companies[3].
A recent report (the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change[4]) finds that climate change’s rising heat is killing one person a minute around the world!
Betts Ecology are climate change aware and trying to reduce reliance on fossil fuels wherever we can. It is not easy, though, as many have found out. Swapping all vehicles and field kit to electric is pricey and takes time, and heating alternatives are very expensive, both to purchase and install. The situation is not helped at all by the unhappy status of the UK economy and the threat of higher taxes. And, as the government now finally admits, the costs, losses and nuisance of Brexit aggravate the whole situation and make it much worse.
[1] https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b
[2] Trump just dismisses science and does not believe in climate change – see his book Crippled America published by Simon & Schuster in 2015.
[3] See, for example, this news item of February this year at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce85709xdk4o
